Bangkok Post
Sunday 05 January 2003

PERSPECTIVE NEWS

The rape of a river

THE MEKONG: China is using a mixture of misinformation, money, and
marketing politics to have its way with the Mother of All Rivers and turn
it into a canal
by Jaime Cabrera

`China is carrying out the projects to dam the Mekong in almost total
secrecy," Chris Lang says in a World Rainforest Movement (WRM) report,
pointing out the absence of an independent environmental impact assessment
(EIA) two years ago.

Last year, "Consultants working on an Asian Development Bank report
complained that they did not have access to data on the proposed dams,"
Lang reports. At the World Commission on Dams (WCD) meeting in Hanoi early
in 2001, Chinese representatives kept quiet about plans to build the
Xiaowan dam.

Downstream countries are increasingly alarmed by China's attempts to
"improve" the Mekong River, which flows through six countries from Tibet to
Vietnam.

Thailand is examining plans to protect its Mekong water reserves for its
northeast territories. Vietnam's investments and projects in the Mekong
delta will be affected by any reduction of the Mekong's waters. Cambodians
worry that a lower Mekong level will kill the Tonle Sap, a huge inland
lake, which depends on the Mekong's backflow in the flood season.

China's sheer mass, its upstream location and its control of almost half of
the Mekong River gives it an edge. It knows it can call the shots, and it
has.

The plan to blast a Mekong channel for Chinese ships is part of an
agreement which Burma, China, Laos and Thailand signed in April 2000.

Joern Kristensen, chief executive of the Mekong River Commission (MRC), has
remained quiet on China's continued refusal to join the Phnom Penh-based
water-management body.

"We would like to avoid confrontation in the region," Sin Niny, the
Cambodian official who heads the MRC joint committee, was quoted in the
Herald Tribune earlier last year.

"Cooperation between the upstream and downstream countries is vital," he
said.

However, the MRC paid for several independent reviews that found the Mekong
blasting project proceeding "too quickly, without adequate studies of the
changes it could cause."

In his 2002 report to the Mekong River Commission, Brian Finlayson of the
University of Melbourne's Centre for Environmental Hydrology, described the
Mekong River Navigation Improvement Project (MRNIP) as aiming to "improve
the navigability of the Mekong River over a 331-km stretch between Boundary
Marker 243 on the China-Myanmar border to Ban Houei Sai in Laos."

Finlayson says the first stage will "remove 11 major rapids and 10
scattered reefs and shoals by dredging and blasting" so that 150-tonne
ships can travel the Mekong.

A second stage involves "further channel improvement" for 300-tonne
vessels, and a final stage will "canalise the river" to allow 4x500 tonne
Chinese barge trains on the Mekong.

Concerns about opening national boundaries to foreign vessels have prompted
national security officials to think up protective and preventive
strategies.

Agriculture and industry officials worry that Chinese dams on the Mekong
will give China the upper hand in controlling water supply to industries,
farms, plantations, and vital food production and supply centres.

Trade and security officials will not elaborate but have held closed-door
conferences on how China could use this combination of river access and
water control as a bargaining power to force the Mekong-dependent countries
to bend to its future wishes.

What they do not say is that it is already happening: Thailand, Cambodia,
Burma and Laos are already dancing to China's tune. But China was planting
seeds long before to push the plan through. Despite environmentalists'
protests, it's the governments of the Mekong river countries that have the
final say, and to a large extent China has them all eating out of its
hands.

China's vast influence lies in its value as a trading and investment
partner. For instance, the same year when the Mekong plan was signed, China
imported more than US$20.2 billion of goods from Brunei, Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. All parties
know that in the future China's economic importance in the region will only
grow.

THE THAIS THAT BIND

A major reef near Chiang Rai will be blasted in March to clear the upper
Mekong River for large Chinese cargo ships. Thailand's MRC representative
Suphot Tovichakchaikul would only say that the blasting was approved by the
four countries. He did not say how this flaunts Thai laws on public
participation.

In regard to large-scale projects such as this, the Thai Constitution
specifies that proper Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA) be made, and
grants to the public the Right to Information, the Right to a
Public-Hearing, the Community Right to Environmental and Resource
Management, the Right to a Decent Environment and the Right of Local
Authorities in the Management, Maintenance and Use of Natural Resources.

Ignoring these laws and the rights of its citizens, Thailand signed the
riparian agreement in April 2000.

Public protests have increased, but the government has refused to take a
strong position either for or against the Mekong project. There are several
reasons, and one is that Thai investments in China run in the billions of
baht.

For instance, the Charoen Pokphand Group has over US$4 billion in assets in
China. Its 173 companies and over 60,000 employees run more than 100
feedmills in 29 of China's 31 provinces.

The Thai government continues to invest millions in China. Two months ago,
a Cabinet meeting approved a 30-year, 1,385-million-baht loan for the
construction of the Chiang Rai-Kunming road via Laos, as well as the rush
opening - within the current fiscal year - of a 38.4-million-baht
investment office in Shanghai.

China also invests millions in Thailand. Last year China initiated a US$110
million cement factory project in Thailand. The Thai Board of Investment
approved 12 projects worth US$194.7 million - including three from China
Worldbest Group - in textiles and citric acid manufacturing.

In the 2001 paper China & Thailand: A New Era of Investment Alliance, the
Thai Farmers Research Centre (TFRC) says that China is "a country which
could put a huge amount of money into Thailand" and that Chinese investment
is "a boon to Thailand, as it brings capital investment into the country,
jumpstart purchases of real estate, create domestic jobs and generate
revenue for the country's export-oriented sector."

The report points out that in 1998 Thailand ranked seventh among countries
with investments from mainland China.

On the Mekong, trade between the southern Chinese province of Yunnan and
the Thai ports of Chiang Saen and Chiang Khong reached US$88 million in
2001, more than double the previous year.

CUDDLING CAMBODIA

The Cambodia Daily recently reported the start of a US$5.3-million project
that will build dikes and remove shoals on the Mekong River, including the
Sambor Rapids, starting from the China-Myanmar border to Ban Houayxai in
Laos. There has been little opposition.

"China does exercise a great deal of influence in Cambodia," James Borton
of the Washington Times quotes Loh Swee Ping, general manager of Cambodia
Sin Chew Daily, Phnom Penh's largest-circulation Chinese-language paper, as
saying.

China-Cambodia relations bloomed in 1997 when Prime Minister Hun Sen
endorsed a one-China policy and shooed out the Taiwanese legation.

Borton describes a strong China presence in Cambodia, from the Mao Tse-tung
Boulevard in downtown Phnom Penh to the new sewer system, as well as
"highways, bridges, and the Phnom Penh Market" all paid for by China. The
new $30 million hydropower station and the "interest-free loans and grants
to rebuild Cambodia's Senate and National Assembly building" cannot be
ignored either.

Thus, it is rare to find anti-Chinese voices in Hun Sen's government. In
November 2000, when the $26-million Kampong Speu power plant was being
considered, the Cambodia National Assembly hotly debated the deal with
China, even questioning the bidding process, but the the deal was approved.
The 12-megawatt plant now powers the entire Kampong Speu province and the
capital Phnom Penh.

"China has built a dozen or more Chinese-language schools across the
country. Beijing's assistance and community-based public-relations campaign
includes providing textbooks and Chinese teachers," a recent Asia Times
report says.

Cambodians are favourably disposed towards China, not the least for past
kindnesses. "China had offered sanctuary to King Sihanouk in 1970, and the
king still travels regularly to Beijing for medical attention," Asia Times
points out.

"Probably the most significant offer from China in recent years was the
announcement of a $200 million interest-free loan in the form of a line of
credit that could be tapped for future projects, and Chinese contractors
have been bidding to rebuild several national roads," Asia Times quotes Yum
Sui Sang, chairman of the Phnom Penh-based China, Hong Kong and Macau
Business Association, as saying.

MANIPULATING BURMA

Though investments of Asean countries in Burma plunged to zero early this
year, Burma remains unperturbed. In December 2001, China's President Jiang
Zemin visited Rangoon and promised $100 million worth of investments _ on
top of existing trade worth over $500 million since 1997.

Chinese investment in Burma is grossly underestimated as it does not go
through the National Investment Board. However, China Daily reports that
behind Singapore and Thailand, China is Burma's third-largest trading
partner, with $600 million of trade each year. Reuters adds that the last
fiscal year saw Burma importing $293 million of Chinese goods and exporting
$104 million to China.

Virtually no foreign journalists are allowed to live in Rangoon, with sole
exception of the representative of China's official Xinhua News Agency.
Xinhua reports that China has built dozens of projects in Burma, including
sugar, paper, textile, plywood, thermal power and rice processing
industries, as well as a highway-railway bridge.

A meeting of Burmese experts in Washington, DC early in 2001 raised
concerns of "Chinese military assistance, extensive construction of
infrastructure, unrecorded investment, (increasing) but undervalued
overland trade and large-scale informal migration."

China is building roads and communication links in Burma to open Yunnan to
Southeast Asia, a United States Pacific Command Headquarters (USPCH) report
says.

Last month, 52 Burmese organisations submitted a petition to Thai Minister
of Natural Resources and Environment Praphat Panyachartrak and the Laotian
ambassador in Bangkok to end the blasting of the Mekong rapids. The letter,
addressed to the Chinese ambassador in Bangkok, strongly opposes the Mekong
Navigation Channel Improvement Project.

The Akha, Lahu, Loi La, En and Shan remain impoverished, the letter says,
while the junta allow militias business such as drug production. The
project will benefit only the military and business elites who alone
control trade in the area, the petition said.

The minister and the ambassador cannot do anything to stop the project.
Burma's ties to China are too strong.

Burma was the first to recognise the People's Republic of China in 1949.
When the Burmese junta killed thousands of people during the 1988
pro-democracy uprising, China refused to break ties with Rangoon. When
Burma ignored the results of its 1990 election, only China continued to
give economic, military, and advisory aid to it.

Furthermore, Chinese immigration to Burma is extensive. About two million
Chinese are now in the country. One-quarter of Mandalay is said to be
Yunnanese Chinese, as is one-half of Lashio. BBC's Larry Jagan says
visitors to Mandalay find it's almost like a Chinese colony: "Chinese
business has extensively penetrated northern Burma," he says.

The past two years saw Rangoon visits by top Chinese leaders such as Vice
President Hu Jintao and Chief of Staff General Fu Quangyou, not to mention
trade, railways, narcotics, border controls and police officials, the USPCH
report says.

Jagan confirms that since the army seized Rangoon in 1988, China has been
Burma's closest ally.

"Beijing supplies it with most of its military hardware and training. They
are also in reality Burma's most important trading partner, although much
of that is unofficial cross-border trade."

He said Beijing is presently paying for "overhauling oil wells and building
a new dockyard for repairing ships as well as helping build a major highway
that would connect the southern Chinese province of Yunnan with the Indian
Ocean through Burma."

LURING LAOS

The mountainous, landlocked country of Laos has only one waterway: the
Mekong. China released a budget of US$5 million (about 209 million baht)
and two out of 11 areas in the Burma-Laos section of the river had been
cleared, according to the September 2001 Report on Environmental Impact
Assessment: The Navigation Improvement project of the Lancang-Mekong River
from China-Myanmar Boundary Marker 243 to Ban Houei Sai of Laos.

The report was prepared by the "Joint Experts Group on EIA of China, Laos,
Myanmar and Thailand."

Finlayson says the report is misleading: "The `tone' of this EIA throughout
is that this is a minor operation to make the river safer for navigation
and that it will have almost no impact. Data are presented which show that
only 3 km out of a total length of 331 km will be directly affected by the
works."

He points out that "the works planned are non-reversible; the removal of
rock bars from the river channel will make a permanent change to the river
environment" and that opening the river to larger ships will bring
"population increase, new and expanded economic activities" which in turn
will seriously affect water quality.

Although the EIA concludes that the project is acceptable in regard to the
environment protection laws of Laos (and the other participating
countries), it treats Laotian hydrology, geology and topography very
superficially, only with "notes indicating what should be there."

Item 2 of Article 12 of the Science, Technology and Environment Agency
Assessment Regulation of the Lao PDR states that an EIA should "identify
and describe the environmental impacts of the project and compare them to
the impacts of one or more reasonable alternatives to the project" such as
roads and railways.

The EIA also ignored Item 4 of Article 12 which requires an EIA to
"identify all Lao laws, regulations, and international treaty obligations,
and land-use plans that are relevant ... and explain in detail how the
project activities will comply with these governmental directives."

The tolerance of the Lao government for gross violations of its regulations
can be explained in economic and socio-cultural terms.

In 1999 Chinese investments reached US$87 million in construction
materials, plantation and animal cultivation, medicine production and
lumber including Chinese-run projects worth US$500 million.

China established TV satellite ground stations in Laos, as well as the
Namgao River hydroelectric station and electricity grid station. The
construction of the Vientiane Culture Centre and the second stage of the
Vangvieng Cement Plant, as well as the projected Luang Prabang Hospital,
are all funded by China.

Laos has supported the One China policy on the Taiwan issue and the
reunification of China.

China's People's Daily reports that in 2001, Chinese firms invested US$997
million in 74 projects in Laos. Since 1992, China has offered Laos
"considerable amount of non-interest and low-interest loans, and
donations."

In 1999, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) approved a US$ 250 million loan
to help China build a 147-kilometre, four-lane toll expressway and upgrade
540 kilometres of feeder roads in Yunnan. The project will be completed
next year, connecting Yunnan to Laos, Burma and Thailand.

Finlayson says the Lao government is likely to suffer as larger ships carry
more fuel oil. "An accident could spill this into the Mekong ... any
pollution incident caused by shipwreck will be felt most severely in Laos
since the largest proportion of the project reach is either wholly or
partly in Lao territory.

"Cargoes such as fertiliser and agricultural chemicals can be spilled and
pollute the river. Whose responsibility is this? What emergency response
facilities are needed? The EIA is silent on these critical matters," he
says.

SURPRISING CONCLUSIONS

Finlayson points out that although joint survey teams with representatives
of the four countries collected data for the EIA, only the Chinese members
of the team kept the data. If they had not, "the other affected states
could have undertaken their own independent analyses," he said.

So where is this leading to?

China's major rivers have long been tamed for transportation routes. Many
observers feel that China wants to do the same to the Mekong. Despite the
velvet gloves, they say, the intention is unmistakable.

China has also long been condemned by the international community for human
rights and environmental abuse in connection with its dam projects.

The Vietnamese government complains that China's dams on the Mekong reduce
the volume of water and allow seawater into the Mekong Delta, which
produces half of Vietnam's food supply.

The reality, however, is that protests and petition letters will probably
have little effect on the Chinese hold on the politics and commerce of
Mekong region.

The lower Mekong countries are unlikely to refuse Beijing the right of way
through their sections of the Mekong River, for fear of economic
retribution.

It seems that only a miracle - nothing short of a four-country rebellion
against China's machinations - will save the Mekong River from becoming a
free-flowing, and likely very polluted, international canal.[End]

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