Bangkok Post, 7 August 2002

ANALYSIS / NAVIGATING THE MEKONG

River project meanders along

China wants to see large vessels plying the Mekong as far as Luang
Prabang in Laos as soon as possible, but hazards need to be removed and
this is causing concern in each of the countries along the route.

SARITDET MARUKATAT

The plan to turn the Mekong river into a lucrative shipping route seems
to be heading down the same stream as the Thai-Malaysian gas pipeline
project _ a long and winding channel with more than a few water hazards.

Worries about security have emerged as the prime concern for Defence
Ministry officials who fear that blasting reefs and rocks along the
river course could create problems for the future.

The blasting will take place where the line dividing Thailand and Laos
remains blurred. Any attempts to touch it, according to Defence Minister
Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, would probably put demarcation work at risk.

Thai and Lao officials have not sat down for talks on where the 976km
water boundary should be, and both are looking to next year as a
tentative deadline to complete the task. Waiting another year also seems
acceptable to China and Burma, who were co-signatories of the agreement
on commercial navigation in April 2000.

The four countries are well aware of the possible impact on the river
itself after the reefs are cleared. A joint study assessing the
environmental changes found the plan ``would not change the thalweg and
flow discharge of the river as well as the boundaries along the river''.
A thalweg is the middle of the chief navigable channel of a waterway
that forms the boundary between states.

But the Thai and Lao governments are at odds over where the water
boundary should be. They are expected to meet later this year to define
the terms of reference to be used as common ground for demarcating the
Mekong.

The guarantee in the study, which Thailand approved on Jan 29, is
unconvincing from a security viewpoint.

``Once reefs are cleared, it will affect the nature of the river,'' said
one security official familiar with demarcation. ``The thalweg is the
most likely thing to change.''

Any delay is likely to please environmentalists and their allies in
Chiang Saen and Chiang Khong districts of Chiang Rai, where the
clearance works in Thailand are going ahead.

They are opposed to the plan on the grounds that it will cause
ecological change and bring misery to the fishermen making a living from
freshwater fish caught in the river.

The Southeast Asia Rivers Networks (Searin), a Chiang Mai-based
non-governmental organisation, has orchestrated an anti-blasting
campaign for months through lawmakers and international sympathisers,
including a petition to the defence minister.

It has drawn encouragement from counterparts opposing the gas pipeline
in Songkhla in the South. Construction of this pipeline is two years
behind schedule as a result of strong protests from villagers and
environmentalists. In an effort to ease the opponents' concerns, the
government has decided to change the pipeline route, although the
protesters want to see the project scrapped altogether.

The possible delay of the Mekong project will give opponents more time
to prepare the next stage of their campaign. ``Now we have time to
strengthen the local movement and gather detailed information for a
future move,'' said Chainarong Sretthachau, the Searin director.

The 886km section of the river covered by the agreement, between Simao
in southern China and Luang Prabang in northern Laos, contains more than
100 shoals, rapids and reefs. There are 11 major reefs and 10 scattered
shoals which threaten navigation by big ships and are slated for
removal, including Khon Pi Laung between Chiang Saen and Chiang Khong.

Any delay will not please China. State officials organised a grand event
in Jinghong, in southern Yunnan, in June last year for transport
ministers and their deputies from China, Burma, Laos and Thailand to
kick off the free flow of vessels after the agreement took effect. They
want a safer and more comfortable passage for bigger ships to cruise up-
and downstream on the river, which the Chinese call the Lancang.

Knowing money could be a problem for other countries to remove the reefs
and other obstacles to shipping, Beijing offered $5 million (210 million
baht) to cover these costs along its border with Burma and between Burma
and Laos.

Senior transport officials from China and Laos also held talks with
Cambodia and Vietnam in Vientiane in March and took them along the river
by boat in order to ease their concerns.

The two downstream countries were worried about the environmental
impact, including the effect of flooding discharges on their countries,
variations in water levels, river-bank erosion, and the possibility of
pollution from navigation accidents.

The eagerness of China is not surprising given the likely boost in trade
and tourism a new shipping route would bring to its southern provinces.
One informed prediction has the river handling 1.5 million tonnes of
cargo and almost half a million passengers by the end of this decade if
big ships are allowed hazard-free travel.

But risks of a possible rift over sovereignty could overwhelm
international cooperation and compel the Thai government to back off the
clearance plan temporarily if Gen Chavalit, who is chairman of the
committee screening cabinet agendas, pushes for reconsideration.

``It's safer and better to leave the river untouched until Thailand and
Laos demarcate the area,'' the same security officer said.

Dr. Louis Lebel
SARCS Science Coordinator
Faculty of Social Sciences
Chiang Mai University
Chiang Mai 50200
THAILAND

Fax: 66-53-263-215
Tel: 66-1-892-9647
Email: llebel@loxinfo.co.th
www.icsea.org
www.sarcs.org

Southeast Asian Science Policy Network in Global Change
an initiative of the Global Change Impacts Centre for Southeast Asia.